Page 16 - MONECO Financial Training Catalogue

COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT

DATES: June 29 – 30, 2026 • PRICES: € 1,400 In-class, € 1050 Online • LOCATION: Prague and Online
Why Attend? Training Objectives
In an era of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, fiscal pressures, The training ensures participants gain a clear understanding of
and ESG-driven investment shifts, understanding country risk country risk and can communicate assessments effectively.
has become indispensable for banks and financial institutions. They will learn to integrate sovereign and ESG risks into portfolio
This intensive two-day seminar equips participants with the tools to decisions and apply monitoring strategies aligned with best
assess, classify, and manage sovereign and country risks, integrating practices. The program strengthens institutional resilience and
both traditional methodologies and cutting-edge practices. builds confidence in addressing global and local risk developments.
Learning Outcomes – Participants Will Learn How To: Who Should Attend?
• Identify, classify, and assess the full spectrum of country risks in The program is designed for senior professionals in banking,
DM and EM markets. finance, and risk management. It is especially relevant for directors
• Differentiate between political, economic, fiscal, external, and and board members seeking a comprehensive understanding of
geopolitical risk drivers. sovereign and country risks. Sovereign analysts, economists, and
• Present structured country risk assessments, incl. baseline views risk specialists will benefit from the structured approach, while ESG,
and latest developments. AML, and reputational experts, together with portfolio and stress
• Conduct downside risk and stress testing to evaluate worst-case testing managers, will find the program directly applicable to their
scenarios. work.
• Apply advanced risk management techniques tailored to portfolios
and exposures.
Course Overview:
On the first day, participants will build a solid foundation in country risk analysis. The morning sessions cover key definitions, concepts,
and taxonomy of risks, followed by a review of sovereign ratings, historical defaults, recovery patterns, and core methodologies such as
scorecards, quantitative models, and rating frameworks. The session closes with early warning indicators that flag vulnerabilities. In the
afternoon, the focus shifts to the main drivers of sovereign ratings. Participants examine political, legal, and governance risks; economic
structure and recession exposure; and fiscal flexibility issues such as budget balances, financing needs, and debt composition. External
risks are addressed through exchange rate vulnerabilities, refinancing constraints, and liquidity pressures. The day ends with monetary and
banking sector risks.
The second day moves to advanced analysis and management techniques. The morning session explores downside risks and scenario
building, including debt sustainability, IMF tools, and the transmission of sovereign risk to banks, state-owned enterprises, and corporates.
ESG and climate-related risks are presented as increasingly material factors in credit assessments. In the afternoon, attention turns to
practical risk management. Participants design monitoring frameworks, review hedging and insurance options, and develop strategies for
managing exposures to non-sovereign risks. The seminar concludes with stress testing and scenario analysis, equipping participants with
concrete methods they can immediately apply in their institutions.

MONDAY, JUNE 29 • Drivers of sovereign ratings: – Capital & financial account; Liquidity
00
09 – 09 15 not all is politics and debt & Refinance risks
Welcome and Introduction • Political, legal and governance Risk – External debt structure
15
15
09 –12 – Prudence, coherence and stability • Monetary Risk & banking sector
Taxonomy of country risks & of policies Risks,
sovereign risk assessments – Efficiency and stability of institutions – Banking crises risks as a contingent
• Country Risk: Why, What, Where – Degree of political freedom/ liability risk
– General Introduction to the CRA Democracy/Human rights: – Independence, efficiency and
course – Domestic and external security prudence of monetary policies.
– Country Risk definition, concepts • Economic growth and structure, Examples of sovereign event risks
and taxonomy of country risks recession risk and their impact
– Sovereign Ratings main sources – Wealth of the country.
of information for monitoring – Trend and volatility of GDP growth TUESDAY, JUNE 30
00
– Current Sovereign Ratings – Private sector soundness; 09 –09 15
and History of Defaults/recovery Adjustment factors Brief recap
15
15
Examples of Sovereign defaults • Fiscal Flexibility Risks: 09 –12
and Non-sovereign CR, and their impact – Government balance, Country downside risks,
– Financing & Fiscal Debt Structure Non-Sovereign Risks & ESG Risks
• Assessing Country Risks Examples of political risks, reading • Country downside risks:
– Country Risk Methodologies economic and fiscal tables (IMF) – Introduction on macro scenarios:
(scorecards, quantitative models, 15 15 What can go wrong?
credit ratings) 12 –13 – Downside scenarios and examples
– Sovereign Ratings: are they a good Lunch break (Greece, Turkey)
15
00
predictor of Sovereign Risks? 13 –17 – Fiscal and external debt
– Country Risk Early Warning Indicators Sovereign Rating Core Drivers (II) – sustainability.
Examples of Country reports: Sovereign External & Monetary Risks – Debt sustainability assessments:
Rating reports; and Country Risk Reports • External imbalance risk: the concepts, IMF tools
– Balance of payments risks Practical examples and small Exercises
Sovereign Rating Core Drivers (I) – and exchange rate risks
Political, Economic and Fiscal risks
16 Hybrid course – both classroom and online training available.